Nobel Laureates Share Findings, Warn of
Consequences
of Climate Change
By David Reinbold, Class of ’09, College of Communications
Richard Alley had a message for the world on a recent Tuesday evening – “If we don't change our behavior, what's coming will be big.”
Alley, the Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences, was talking about the environment and climate — and the adverse effects our consumption of fossil fuels is having on them.
Alley is one of five Penn State scientists who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore. In a recent (Feb. 19) panel discussion, “Nobel Knowledge in Climate Change,” at the HUB, those faculty members shared their work and what it means to current and future climate science to a crowded audience of students, faculty and community members on their research, developments and findings on global climate change.
The five, including Alley, are Anne Thompson, professor of meteorology; Michael Mann, associate professor of meteorology and geosciences; Klaus Keller, assistant professor of geosciences; and William Easterling, dean of the college of earth and mineral sciences. All served on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which advises government leaders around the world on climate science.
Speaking first, Alley said that human activity already has resulted in a change in global temperatures of perhaps one or two degrees Fahrenheit. Not a large deviation from the norm, but if our behaviors don't change to accommodate for our expanding population and changing climate, the effects could be devastating.
Warmer temperatures will cause sea levels to rise, could change precipitation and other weather patterns, endanger or kill off certain species as well as increase the ranges of disease vectors. A shift in climate could also have adverse effects on food supplies, industries and ultimately, the world economy.
The culprits: increasing levels of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide and methane.
“Feedbacks between chemical changes and [a] perturbed climate may amplify one another,” said Thompson, outlining how greenhouses gases coupled with a depleting supply of vegetation are creating an unsustainable mix for our environment.
These professors offered up causal relationships between human behaviors and escalating climate change, noting that while temperature changes have occurred at other times, “the most recent warmth is anomalous,” said Mann, towards the end of his comments.
Keller said we should start investing in reducing carbon dioxide levels now. Arguing we need to characterize uncertainties and analyze them, he included a palpable metaphor: “If you're smoking, you quit to reduce your risk of lung cancer,” he said. “There's no proof that you'll get lung cancer. You can't predict that. However, you can predict patterns and analyze them.”
Easterling focused on how climate changes are affecting and will affect agricultural practices and crops. Estimates are the global population will grow to about 10 billion people in 50 to 70 years, Easterling said. He then raised this question: Are we going to be able to feed 10 billion people in 50 to 70 years?
He also pointed out that many crops are growing at their photosynthetic threshold at the moment. Those crops that are located in low-latitude or tropical regions are expected to see decline in yields with anticipated changes in climate.
That prompted Alley to ask whether it makes sense to hold off mitigation efforts until there is greater certainty about the extent of climate change. His response: No.
More investments and research are needed to better stabilize our climate. It has taken nearly four decades to understand how the climate is affected by greenhouse gases and there's still a lot more research to be done, he said.
Whether taking better efforts to recycle, buying a gas-friendly car or conserving water inside your home, Alley said it is imperative to take action now.
“It's not just altruistic to work on climate change,” said Alley. “It makes economic sense.”